Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions Forum

[Anonymous User]

Any word on if Chief Judge Gregory (CA4) is going senior sometime this summer? Might just be reading tea leaves, but his term as chief ends in July and it looks on OSCAR like he's only taking 3 term clerks for 2024 vs. the usual 4 for active judges. Curious who potential VA replacements would be---CA4 is so closely divided ideologically as is and already has one MD vacancy.

8-6 (or 9-6 with the MD vacancy filled) is closely divided? Lol.

Given the incompetence of the new White House Counsel (see the Ramirez nomination to CA5 and the slow pace of nominations in general this year) and the fact that the MD vacancy wasn’t filled before the midterms when Klain/Remus were still around, I wouldn’t be surprised if the MD seat is left open until 2025 and flips R as a result. That would leave CA4 split 8-7, so yes Gregory’s seat may well tip the balance if he goes senior too late and Old Man Joe fails to get it together / nominate a decent replacement.

Most circuits are closer than they appear. The 4th would flip Republican if Judges King (age 85 in 2025) and Gregory (age 73) were replaced by a GOP president. The 9th is also two seats from flipping and has three aging Clinton appointees.

On the other side, Democrats need one seat to tie the 11th and 2 to tie the 6th. The 6th has two Bush appointees who are over 70.

[not2spicy4]

Any word on if Chief Judge Gregory (CA4) is going senior sometime this summer? Might just be reading tea leaves, but his term as chief ends in July and it looks on OSCAR like he's only taking 3 term clerks for 2024 vs. the usual 4 for active judges. Curious who potential VA replacements would be---CA4 is so closely divided ideologically as is and already has one MD vacancy.

8-6 (or 9-6 with the MD vacancy filled) is closely divided? Lol.

Given the incompetence of the new White House Counsel (see the Ramirez nomination to CA5 and the slow pace of nominations in general this year) and the fact that the MD vacancy wasn’t filled before the midterms when Klain/Remus were still around, I wouldn’t be surprised if the MD seat is left open until 2025 and flips R as a result. That would leave CA4 split 8-7, so yes Gregory’s seat may well tip the balance if he goes senior too late and Old Man Joe fails to get it together / nominate a decent replacement.

Most circuits are closer than they appear. The 4th would flip Republican if Judges King (age 85 in 2025) and Gregory (age 73) were replaced by a GOP president. The 9th is also two seats from flipping and has three aging Clinton appointees.

On the other side, Democrats need one seat to tie the 11th and 2 to tie the 6th. The 6th has two Bush appointees who are over 70.

I think Gregory is 69, not 73, so I wouldn't expect him to go senior anytime soon just based on age alone.

[Anonymous User]

Any word on if Chief Judge Gregory (CA4) is going senior sometime this summer? Might just be reading tea leaves, but his term as chief ends in July and it looks on OSCAR like he's only taking 3 term clerks for 2024 vs. the usual 4 for active judges. Curious who potential VA replacements would be---CA4 is so closely divided ideologically as is and already has one MD vacancy.

8-6 (or 9-6 with the MD vacancy filled) is closely divided? Lol.

Given the incompetence of the new White House Counsel (see the Ramirez nomination to CA5 and the slow pace of nominations in general this year) and the fact that the MD vacancy wasn’t filled before the midterms when Klain/Remus were still around, I wouldn’t be surprised if the MD seat is left open until 2025 and flips R as a result. That would leave CA4 split 8-7, so yes Gregory’s seat may well tip the balance if he goes senior too late and Old Man Joe fails to get it together / nominate a decent replacement.

Most circuits are closer than they appear. The 4th would flip Republican if Judges King (age 85 in 2025) and Gregory (age 73) were replaced by a GOP president. The 9th is also two seats from flipping and has three aging Clinton appointees.

On the other side, Democrats need one seat to tie the 11th and 2 to tie the 6th. The 6th has two Bush appointees who are over 70.

I think Gregory is 69, not 73, so I wouldn't expect him to go senior anytime soon just based on age alone.

That's right, he's born in 1953--so that would make him 72 in 2025 (the nearest year that could have a Republican president), not 73.

[not2spicy4]

Any word on if Chief Judge Gregory (CA4) is going senior sometime this summer? Might just be reading tea leaves, but his term as chief ends in July and it looks on OSCAR like he's only taking 3 term clerks for 2024 vs. the usual 4 for active judges. Curious who potential VA replacements would be---CA4 is so closely divided ideologically as is and already has one MD vacancy.

8-6 (or 9-6 with the MD vacancy filled) is closely divided? Lol.

Given the incompetence of the new White House Counsel (see the Ramirez nomination to CA5 and the slow pace of nominations in general this year) and the fact that the MD vacancy wasn’t filled before the midterms when Klain/Remus were still around, I wouldn’t be surprised if the MD seat is left open until 2025 and flips R as a result. That would leave CA4 split 8-7, so yes Gregory’s seat may well tip the balance if he goes senior too late and Old Man Joe fails to get it together / nominate a decent replacement.

Most circuits are closer than they appear. The 4th would flip Republican if Judges King (age 85 in 2025) and Gregory (age 73) were replaced by a GOP president. The 9th is also two seats from flipping and has three aging Clinton appointees.

On the other side, Democrats need one seat to tie the 11th and 2 to tie the 6th. The 6th has two Bush appointees who are over 70.

I think Gregory is 69, not 73, so I wouldn't expect him to go senior anytime soon just based on age alone.

That's right, he's born in 1953--so that would make him 72 in 2025 (the nearest year that could have a Republican president), not 73.

Ah ok I see why you were using 2025 as the reference point. Still, if he is hiring 4 clerks for 2025 (as his OSCAR post says), that presumably signals an intent not to go senior that year. And from what I've heard through the grapevine, he's not particularly ideological/political, so I guess what I mean to say is that I'm skeptical that he'd time his retirement based on how the election might shake out.

[Anonymous User]

Looks like Jeffrey Bryan of the Minnesota Court of Appeals will be nominated to D MN. He looks highly qualified.

https://www.startribune.com/judge-jeffr ... 600284976/

[Anonymous User]

any guesses who will be nominated to replace Stranch (assuming they get to it, which you'd think they'd want to)?

[Anonymous User]

It's obviously going to be NC Solicitor General Ryan Park for the CA4 seat, right?

[Anonymous User]

It's obviously going to be NC Solicitor General Ryan Park for the CA4 seat, right?

Who knows, iirc Biden hasn’t nominated any state SGs except Heytens even though most people assumed he would. Perfectly possible it goes to an FPD or something.

[Anonymous User]

It's obviously going to be NC Solicitor General Ryan Park for the CA4 seat, right?

Who knows, iirc Biden hasn’t nominated any state SGs except Heytens even though most people assumed he would. Perfectly possible it goes to an FPD or something.

This administration has mostly tried to get Republican blue slips for circuit nominees even those aren’t necessary anymore (with the exception of Tennessee, likely because Blackburn was never going to return a blue slip for anyone), and I’m skeptical that the NC senators would sign off on Ryan Park. Looking at the recent red-state circuit nominees, a white guy with a prosecutor or military background seems more likely.

Of course, if NC senators are unreasonable and the WH gives up on trying to get blue slips, then maybe Park has a shot.

[Anonymous User]

It's obviously going to be NC Solicitor General Ryan Park for the CA4 seat, right?

Who knows, iirc Biden hasn’t nominated any state SGs except Heytens even though most people assumed he would. Perfectly possible it goes to an FPD or something.

This administration has mostly tried to get Republican blue slips for circuit nominees even those aren’t necessary anymore (with the exception of Tennessee, likely because Blackburn was never going to return a blue slip for anyone), and I’m skeptical that the NC senators would sign off on Ryan Park. Looking at the recent red-state circuit nominees, a white guy with a prosecutor or military background seems more likely.

Of course, if NC senators are unreasonable and the WH gives up on trying to get blue slips, then maybe Park has a shot.

Yeah that’s another thing, plus Tillis has given some Biden nominees a fair shake and that’s something the White House rewards.