etramak wrote:Isn't there a likelihood, especially when it comes to waitlisted applicants, that LSN users neglect to update when they withdraw/are accepted?
Absolutely. LSN is giving us a very incomplete picture. But that's where the 15-25% number is coming from, so the newer years are just as (un)reliable.
Here is the TLS compilation thread on the subject: T14 Waitlist Data (2011-2013)
This data includes all applicants on LSN who indicated a decision (so not those who left their status as “Pending”)
2011-2013 (3 cycles): 23.7% (312 applicants on LSN did not withdraw from the waitlist, 74 eventually admitted)
Using the same methods, here are the recent years:
2014: ~20% (16/79)
2015: ~15% (17/115)
2016: ~4% (4/91)