J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

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Jdsquared87

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Re: J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

Postby Jdsquared87 » Fri Oct 12, 2018 9:27 am

smile0751 wrote:MA's results are out!! I ended up passing!! :D :D ;D I'm absolutely floored and thrilled. Thanks for the support and this data!



Congrats!!! That's amazing!!! The word is NJ's results might be released today- I hope I'll be celebrating like you!

b290

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Re: J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

Postby b290 » Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:22 am

smile0751 wrote:MA's results are out!! I ended up passing!! :D :D ;D I'm absolutely floored and thrilled. Thanks for the support and this data!

I don't like to be that guy who says "I told you so", but... :lol:

For the benefit of those here studying for Feb (and beyond), what did you do (and who did you use) for studying?

Congrats and wishing you success in your career! The victory is all yours! Well done counselor! 8)

My $.02

Nightcrawler

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Re: J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

Postby Nightcrawler » Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:57 am

JoeSeperac wrote:Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but the J18 scale will be worse than the J17 scale. For example, a J17 examinee with an MBE of 137.5 was 38.2 %tile while a J18 examinee with an MBE of 137.8 was 44.2 %tile. A higher %tile for a similar score means that the scale is lower for that exam. For example, in F17 an MBE of 136.7 was 56.3 %tile while in F18 an MBE of 136.7 was 59.5 %tile and the MBE mean in F17 was 134.1 versus 132.775 in F18. As to how significant the difference, I don't know yet. However, I can guesstimate it and also tell you the J18 MBE mean if more examinees send me their score info, especially examinees with MBE scores between 138-145:

https://seperac.com/subscoreform.php


The J17 scale was (raw points)+(8 extra points) if I remember correctly. How many extra points do you think this scale will add to the raw score?

mathandthelaw

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Re: J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

Postby mathandthelaw » Fri Oct 12, 2018 11:46 am

PuzzleBubble wrote:
mathandthelaw wrote:
b290 wrote:
MovedToNevada wrote:Nevada's results were released yesterday and the pass rate (57%) was lower than July 2017 (66%). Nevada uses an MBE cutoff of I believe 138 but the MBE counts for only 33% of total score.

Isn't Nevada the state that requires a certain score for some essays - in addition to the overall passing score? That's harsh - even worse than Cali :shock:

mathandthelaw wrote:This is really interesting! Yes the high passing score definitely hurts. Could you explain to me what the score of 288 for California (which seemed to be the highest) means? Like what are those score numbers. For some reason, I couldn't figure it out.

So the 288 = 72 percent of 400. The 400 point scale is what many states are using so other states' scales were converted to that. They're largely there for comparison.

The states are on the far left (obviously); those in blue administered the UBE as of July 2018. Those highlighted in yellow are smaller states (i.e. those with less than 300 test takers); Connecticut usually is around 300. As we know with small sample sizes, usually = exaggerated changes. It also means that a few test-takers could buck the trend by passing/failing.

The left columns are test administrations as per year; the blue-shaded ones were UBE administrations. The MBE means for each administration are at the top of each of those columns - color coded as per increase/decrease. While July 2015 was the first "new" July exam (i.e. Civ Pro MBE), 2014 was also included for reference (for the record, the July 2014 mean was down from the previous year too).

The right-hand columns are percent changes from the previous July administration. Green and red are obvious, but the golden numbers are changes between -1% and 1%. That's practically negligible change. You'll see some outliers (like Mississippi's continually declining rates), and there are some things that could've affected results (like the Examsoft 2014 debacle or delays - like what happened in Colorado) But it's crazy seeing the correlation with a point+ increase/decrease. Expect the MBE (and the mean)'s importance to magnify as more states adopt the UBE (aka the MBE+ Exam)

smile0751 wrote:Massachusetts results are released tomorrow. After following this thread and my own gut feeling, I'm really really nervous and worried.

I've been there and it's not obv fun. If it makes you feel a little better, almost everyone I knew (that passed) thought they failed it the night before. Hang in there! 8)

My $.02


Thank you! So that means a scaled score of 72% is passing in California if I'm understanding correct. That would mean the 288 is the highest.


Delaware


Sorry, I missed Delaware for some reason. You're right! Delaware does require the highest MBE.

TheJuryMustDie

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Re: J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

Postby TheJuryMustDie » Fri Oct 12, 2018 12:13 pm

smile0751 wrote:MA's results are out!! I ended up passing!! :D :D ;D I'm absolutely floored and thrilled. Thanks for the support and this data!


Congrats! Still waiting for NY!

smile0751

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Re: J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

Postby smile0751 » Fri Oct 12, 2018 1:52 pm

b290 wrote:
smile0751 wrote:MA's results are out!! I ended up passing!! :D :D ;D I'm absolutely floored and thrilled. Thanks for the support and this data!

I don't like to be that guy who says "I told you so", but... :lol:

For the benefit of those here studying for Feb (and beyond), what did you do (and who did you use) for studying?

Congrats and wishing you success in your career! The victory is all yours! Well done counselor! 8)

My $.02


Thank you!! The euphoria still hasnt worn off yet. :D :D :D

I actually got a 324, which is shocking because I thought I got at least three of the essays COMPLETELY wrong and one of my MPTs was a mess. When I read the TLS discussions of the essay topics after the fact, I seemed to have completely missed / or gotten wrong most the major points and I felt like my writing was incredibly disorganized.

I completed 100% of Themis's program and made my own flashcards. Overall it was a pretty conventional studying regimen, but I will say I think Themis undersells how important it is to just straight memorize things starting early in the program.

MovedToNevada

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Re: J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

Postby MovedToNevada » Fri Oct 26, 2018 11:20 am

b290 wrote:
MovedToNevada wrote:Nevada's results were released yesterday and the pass rate (57%) was lower than July 2017 (66%). Nevada uses an MBE cutoff of I believe 138 but the MBE counts for only 33% of total score.

Isn't Nevada the state that requires a certain score for some essays - in addition to the overall passing score? That's harsh - even worse than Cali :shock:

Yes, in NV you have to get a 75 (out of 100) on at least 3 of their 8 essay questions.



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