J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

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JoeSeperac

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J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

Postby JoeSeperac » Fri Sep 14, 2018 9:52 pm

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but the J18 scale will be worse than the J17 scale. For example, a J17 examinee with an MBE of 137.5 was 38.2 %tile while a J18 examinee with an MBE of 137.8 was 44.2 %tile. A higher %tile for a similar score means that the scale is lower for that exam. For example, in F17 an MBE of 136.7 was 56.3 %tile while in F18 an MBE of 136.7 was 59.5 %tile and the MBE mean in F17 was 134.1 versus 132.775 in F18. As to how significant the difference, I don't know yet. However, I can guesstimate it and also tell you the J18 MBE mean if more examinees send me their score info, especially examinees with MBE scores between 138-145:

https://seperac.com/subscoreform.php

TheJuryMustDie

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Re: J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

Postby TheJuryMustDie » Sat Sep 15, 2018 7:20 am

JoeSeperac wrote:Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but the J18 scale will be worse than the J17 scale. For example, a J17 examinee with an MBE of 137.5 was 38.2 %tile while a J18 examinee with an MBE of 137.8 was 44.2 %tile. A higher %tile for a similar score means that the scale is lower for that exam. For example, in F17 an MBE of 136.7 was 56.3 %tile while in F18 an MBE of 136.7 was 59.5 %tile and the MBE mean in F17 was 134.1 versus 132.775 in F18. As to how significant the difference, I don't know yet. However, I can guesstimate it and also tell you the J18 MBE mean if more examinees send me their score info, especially examinees with MBE scores between 138-145:

https://seperac.com/subscoreform.php


I have sensed that too, Joe! While a 160 in J17 was 87th percentile, a 160 in July18 is 88th percentile. A 165 in J17 was 93rd percentile whereas a 165 in July18 is 93.9.

I think there will be around 1 scaled point drop from last July...

TheJuryMustDie

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Re: J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

Postby TheJuryMustDie » Sat Sep 15, 2018 7:30 am

JoeSeperac wrote:Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but the J18 scale will be worse than the J17 scale. For example, a J17 examinee with an MBE of 137.5 was 38.2 %tile while a J18 examinee with an MBE of 137.8 was 44.2 %tile. A higher %tile for a similar score means that the scale is lower for that exam. For example, in F17 an MBE of 136.7 was 56.3 %tile while in F18 an MBE of 136.7 was 59.5 %tile and the MBE mean in F17 was 134.1 versus 132.775 in F18. As to how significant the difference, I don't know yet. However, I can guesstimate it and also tell you the J18 MBE mean if more examinees send me their score info, especially examinees with MBE scores between 138-145:

https://seperac.com/subscoreform.php


Just checked the NCBE's website. They have reported a 2.2 drop in the MBE mean score for July18. Not particularly great news then. :(

YouTea

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Re: J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

Postby YouTea » Sat Sep 15, 2018 8:42 am

139.5. Brutal for July.

TheJuryMustDie

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Re: J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

Postby TheJuryMustDie » Sat Sep 15, 2018 8:57 am

TheJuryMustDie wrote:
JoeSeperac wrote:Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but the J18 scale will be worse than the J17 scale. For example, a J17 examinee with an MBE of 137.5 was 38.2 %tile while a J18 examinee with an MBE of 137.8 was 44.2 %tile. A higher %tile for a similar score means that the scale is lower for that exam. For example, in F17 an MBE of 136.7 was 56.3 %tile while in F18 an MBE of 136.7 was 59.5 %tile and the MBE mean in F17 was 134.1 versus 132.775 in F18. As to how significant the difference, I don't know yet. However, I can guesstimate it and also tell you the J18 MBE mean if more examinees send me their score info, especially examinees with MBE scores between 138-145:

https://seperac.com/subscoreform.php


Just checked the NCBE's website. They have reported a 2.2 drop in the MBE mean score for July18. Not particularly great news then. :(


http://www.ncbex.org/news/july-2018-ave ... -decrease/

dabigchina

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Re: J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

Postby dabigchina » Sat Sep 15, 2018 9:52 am

Whelp waiting for a really low pass rate for CA, I guess.

staygolden

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Re: J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

Postby staygolden » Sat Sep 15, 2018 10:11 am

Is there anything good that can come out of a lower mean?

JoeSeperac

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Re: J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

Postby JoeSeperac » Sat Sep 15, 2018 12:39 pm

TheJuryMustDie wrote:
JoeSeperac wrote:Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but the J18 scale will be worse than the J17 scale. For example, a J17 examinee with an MBE of 137.5 was 38.2 %tile while a J18 examinee with an MBE of 137.8 was 44.2 %tile. A higher %tile for a similar score means that the scale is lower for that exam. For example, in F17 an MBE of 136.7 was 56.3 %tile while in F18 an MBE of 136.7 was 59.5 %tile and the MBE mean in F17 was 134.1 versus 132.775 in F18. As to how significant the difference, I don't know yet. However, I can guesstimate it and also tell you the J18 MBE mean if more examinees send me their score info, especially examinees with MBE scores between 138-145:

https://seperac.com/subscoreform.php


Just checked the NCBE's website. They have reported a 2.2 drop in the MBE mean score for July18. Not particularly great news then. :(


Below is a chart comparing CA July Pass rates to the July national MBE mean from 1996-2016.

Image

dabigchina

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Re: J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

Postby dabigchina » Sat Sep 15, 2018 12:48 pm

Wow so this isn't just low, this is one of the lowest ever. Interesting that the correlation between CA and mbe mean decoupled in 2017 after they moved to the 2 day exam.

TheJuryMustDie

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Re: J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

Postby TheJuryMustDie » Sat Sep 15, 2018 12:57 pm

dabigchina wrote:Wow so this isn't just low, this is one of the lowest ever. Interesting that the correlation between CA and mbe mean decoupled in 2017 after they moved to the 2 day exam.


It does look like this July's MBE mean is the lowest in about 30 years.

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Re: J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

Postby dabigchina » Sat Sep 15, 2018 12:58 pm

TheJuryMustDie wrote:
dabigchina wrote:Wow so this isn't just low, this is one of the lowest ever. Interesting that the correlation between CA and mbe mean decoupled in 2017 after they moved to the 2 day exam.


It does look like this July's MBE mean is the lowest in about 30 years.

Makes me think they fucked up the psychometrics. The drop is way too big.

TheJuryMustDie

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Re: J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

Postby TheJuryMustDie » Sat Sep 15, 2018 1:00 pm

dabigchina wrote:
TheJuryMustDie wrote:
dabigchina wrote:Wow so this isn't just low, this is one of the lowest ever. Interesting that the correlation between CA and mbe mean decoupled in 2017 after they moved to the 2 day exam.


It does look like this July's MBE mean is the lowest in about 30 years.

Makes me think they fucked up the psychometrics. The drop is way too big.


As Joe Seperac reckon, that won't be surprising. Probably why they make little known of their procedures.

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Calbears123

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Re: J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

Postby Calbears123 » Sat Sep 15, 2018 1:05 pm

The J18 MBE did seem odd compared to all the released question on AdaptiBar.

JoeSeperac

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Re: J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

Postby JoeSeperac » Sat Sep 15, 2018 1:10 pm

TheJuryMustDie wrote:It does look like this July's MBE mean is the lowest in about 30 years.


The July 2018 MBE mean of 139.5 is the 3rd lowest July mean since the MBE was introduced in 1972. The lowest was July 1972 (137.9) and then July 1984 (139.2).

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Re: J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

Postby Molj1987 » Sat Sep 15, 2018 1:14 pm

JoeSeperac wrote:
TheJuryMustDie wrote:It does look like this July's MBE mean is the lowest in about 30 years.


The July 2018 MBE mean of 139.5 is the 3rd lowest July mean since the MBE was introduced in 1972. The lowest was July 1972 (137.9) and then July 1984 (139.2).



And yet this is still passing in virtually every state, no? I mean we are talking about differentials worth a fraction of a point.

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Re: J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

Postby TheJuryMustDie » Sat Sep 15, 2018 1:20 pm

JoeSeperac wrote:
TheJuryMustDie wrote:It does look like this July's MBE mean is the lowest in about 30 years.


The July 2018 MBE mean of 139.5 is the 3rd lowest July mean since the MBE was introduced in 1972. The lowest was July 1972 (137.9) and then July 1984 (139.2).


Joe, out of interest, do you have an idea what the average July mean in New York? I understand the essays are scaled to the jurisdiction's MBE mean.

TheJuryMustDie

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Re: J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

Postby TheJuryMustDie » Sat Sep 15, 2018 1:21 pm

Molj1987 wrote:
JoeSeperac wrote:
TheJuryMustDie wrote:It does look like this July's MBE mean is the lowest in about 30 years.


The July 2018 MBE mean of 139.5 is the 3rd lowest July mean since the MBE was introduced in 1972. The lowest was July 1972 (137.9) and then July 1984 (139.2).



And yet this is still passing in virtually every state, no? I mean we are talking about differentials worth a fraction of a point.


No. There was a drop of 2.2 points from July17 to July18. That's significant especially if you are on the cusp.

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Re: J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

Postby JoeSeperac » Sat Sep 15, 2018 1:34 pm

TheJuryMustDie wrote:
Molj1987 wrote:
JoeSeperac wrote:
TheJuryMustDie wrote:It does look like this July's MBE mean is the lowest in about 30 years.


The July 2018 MBE mean of 139.5 is the 3rd lowest July mean since the MBE was introduced in 1972. The lowest was July 1972 (137.9) and then July 1984 (139.2).



And yet this is still passing in virtually every state, no? I mean we are talking about differentials worth a fraction of a point.


No. There was a drop of 2.2 points from July17 to July18. That's significant especially if you are on the cusp.


This is 100% correct. If you are on the cusp for J18, you are more likely to end up on the failing end as compared to J17. As to why the MBE mean is so important to pass rates, following are national July pass rates from 2016 to 1996 compared to the July MBE mean:

Image

Molj1987

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Re: J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

Postby Molj1987 » Sat Sep 15, 2018 1:36 pm

TheJuryMustDie wrote:
Molj1987 wrote:
JoeSeperac wrote:
TheJuryMustDie wrote:It does look like this July's MBE mean is the lowest in about 30 years.


The July 2018 MBE mean of 139.5 is the 3rd lowest July mean since the MBE was introduced in 1972. The lowest was July 1972 (137.9) and then July 1984 (139.2).



And yet this is still passing in virtually every state, no? I mean we are talking about differentials worth a fraction of a point.


No. There was a drop of 2.2 points from July17 to July18. That's significant especially if you are on the cusp.


True, but that could be an anomaly; July 2015 was only 0.4 higher. July 2016 was only 0.8 higher. The point is that the average score is still passing.

JoeSeperac

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Re: J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

Postby JoeSeperac » Sat Sep 15, 2018 1:39 pm

TheJuryMustDie wrote:
JoeSeperac wrote:
TheJuryMustDie wrote:It does look like this July's MBE mean is the lowest in about 30 years.


The July 2018 MBE mean of 139.5 is the 3rd lowest July mean since the MBE was introduced in 1972. The lowest was July 1972 (137.9) and then July 1984 (139.2).


Joe, out of interest, do you have an idea what the average July mean in New York? I understand the essays are scaled to the jurisdiction's MBE mean.


Not any more. I could figure it out for the pre-UBE exam, but not with the current exam. From my data, the July NY mean is an average of 2.2 points lower than the July national mean. For example, in J13, the national MBE mean was 144.3 while the NY MBE mean was 142.25.

Molj1987

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Re: J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

Postby Molj1987 » Sat Sep 15, 2018 1:41 pm

JoeSeperac wrote:
TheJuryMustDie wrote:
Molj1987 wrote:
JoeSeperac wrote:
TheJuryMustDie wrote:It does look like this July's MBE mean is the lowest in about 30 years.


The July 2018 MBE mean of 139.5 is the 3rd lowest July mean since the MBE was introduced in 1972. The lowest was July 1972 (137.9) and then July 1984 (139.2).



And yet this is still passing in virtually every state, no? I mean we are talking about differentials worth a fraction of a point.


No. There was a drop of 2.2 points from July17 to July18. That's significant especially if you are on the cusp.


This is 100% correct. If you are on the cusp for J18, you are more likely to end up on the failing end as compared to J17. As to why the MBE mean is so important to pass rates, following are national July pass rates from 2016 to 1996 compared to the July MBE mean:



Graph is helpful but the correlation actually seems to fade when looking at data from recent years.

TheJuryMustDie

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Re: J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

Postby TheJuryMustDie » Sat Sep 15, 2018 2:08 pm

JoeSeperac wrote:
TheJuryMustDie wrote:
JoeSeperac wrote:
TheJuryMustDie wrote:It does look like this July's MBE mean is the lowest in about 30 years.


The July 2018 MBE mean of 139.5 is the 3rd lowest July mean since the MBE was introduced in 1972. The lowest was July 1972 (137.9) and then July 1984 (139.2).


Joe, out of interest, do you have an idea what the average July mean in New York? I understand the essays are scaled to the jurisdiction's MBE mean.


Not any more. I could figure it out for the pre-UBE exam, but not with the current exam. From my data, the July NY mean is an average of 2.2 points lower than the July national mean. For example, in J13, the national MBE mean was 144.3 while the NY MBE mean was 142.25.


So it could be theoretically be 137.2 for July18 then. Would you say the essays mean will also be 137.2 for July18? The written portion is my Achilles Heels. :(

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Re: J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

Postby JoeSeperac » Sat Sep 15, 2018 2:09 pm

dabigchina wrote:
TheJuryMustDie wrote:
dabigchina wrote:Wow so this isn't just low, this is one of the lowest ever. Interesting that the correlation between CA and mbe mean decoupled in 2017 after they moved to the 2 day exam.


It does look like this July's MBE mean is the lowest in about 30 years.

Makes me think they fucked up the psychometrics. The drop is way too big.


It's substantial, but I would guess that NCBE would triple check an abnormally low MBE such as J18s. Unfortunately, corresponding LSATs have been dropping for years, which implies lower MBE when that class goes to take the bar. From the LSAT data, it will actually get worse.

Image

dabigchina

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Re: J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

Postby dabigchina » Sat Sep 15, 2018 2:52 pm

So is it for sure that this would negatively impact scaling? For instance, the mean score might be lower, but the decrease in scores may not be caused by "leveller" questions they use to establish the difficulty of the exam?

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Re: J18 scale will be lower than J17 scale

Postby Nightcrawler » Sat Sep 15, 2018 3:19 pm

JoeSeperac wrote:
dabigchina wrote:
TheJuryMustDie wrote:
dabigchina wrote:Wow so this isn't just low, this is one of the lowest ever. Interesting that the correlation between CA and mbe mean decoupled in 2017 after they moved to the 2 day exam.


It does look like this July's MBE mean is the lowest in about 30 years.

Makes me think they fucked up the psychometrics. The drop is way too big.


It's substantial, but I would guess that NCBE would triple check an abnormally low MBE such as J18s. Unfortunately, corresponding LSATs have been dropping for years, which implies lower MBE when that class goes to take the bar. From the LSAT data, it will actually get worse.

Image


I don't think they fucked up with the numbers. I think they finally achieved the psychometric's goal. And I am not talking about the main goal - uniformity between administrations. This psychometric method will inevitably lead to lower and lower pass rates until a good number of people will give up sitting for the exam entirely, won't it?

Think about it. The lower the scores, the lower the scales, the higher the number of applicants who will fail. Which in turn will decrease the scores, which will decrease the scale even more. And this cycle will go on until either (1) a big number of repeaters will stop sitting for the bar exam allowing "better" applicants to reverse this trend, or (2) the pass rates will get so low that so many law schools will lose accreditation, leading to a temporary political solution (eg: lowering the cut score).



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