February 2017 Texas Bar Exam Forum

[kawikav]

Does anyone know if any TX profs release what they think the correct answers for the released questions would be? In VA some professors do that, so that was nice (or terrifying) to see what they thought should be correct answers. It would be cool if some TX attorneys or profs released something similar.

[favrefire4]

Under this kind of scoring system aren't they effectively capping how many people can pass??

[BVest]

Under this kind of scoring system aren't they effectively capping how many people can pass??

No, but it does depend on how the examinees as a whole do on the MBE relative to prior examinee groups.

Does anyone know if any TX profs release what they think the correct answers for the released questions would be? In VA some professors do that, so that was nice (or terrifying) to see what they thought should be correct answers. It would be cool if some TX attorneys or profs released something similar.

No. And I'm on the fence about whether what the VA profs do is helpful or distressing.

[favrefire4]

Even if it depends on how examinees do on the MBE relative to prior administrations, it would still have the effect of ultimately placing a cap on the number of students who can pass. If the median is lower, less students can pass than if it were higher than prior administrations.

[vandyclark]

p

[BVest]

Even if it depends on how examinees do on the MBE relative to prior administrations, it would still have the effect of ultimately placing a cap on the number of students who can pass. If the median is lower, less students can pass than if it were higher than prior administrations.

Only to the extent having a pass/fail line places a cap on how many can pass.

[Gully1990]

I haven't been on in awhile. But as a repeater I have not been thinking about results much. I will panic the day of and watch Justice Willetts tweets but other than that, ill just wait lol. I will have my wine handy that day!!

Random thoughts lol

[favrefire4]

Less than a month to go! Does anyone know if there are any kind of hints or tricks or anything with regard to our profile or such that would allow us to "glean" our results early?

[maxmartin]

Less than a month to go! Does anyone know if there are any kind of hints or tricks or anything with regard to our profile or such that would allow us to "glean" our results early?

NO

[favrefire4]

Well...that was very matter of the fact lol. Thanks? Are we all in agreement that they'll be out on 4/28?

[haro]

I'm almost as excited to see if any of my essay answers qualified as published sample answers as I am for the actual results.

Think about it.. It will be a trophy on public display for the next 8 years

[Estecontre]

Well...that was very matter of the fact lol. Thanks? Are we all in agreement that they'll be out on 4/28?

I think so. They're usually released a day before, but the release date so far is for a Monday, so who knows. They should confirm a week or two before when they "expect" to release results.

As for your first question, I wish there was a way to glean into our results. Last time around there was a big fuss, because the board sent out a couple of emails and some of us received two emails while others only one. This time around my employers received an email like two weeks ago and someone floated the theory that that might be a good sign, because they wouldn't bother following up with C&F if you failed...why waste the time. It's like reading tea leaves!! Pointless...

[Hottexas]

I'm almost as excited to see if any of my essay answers qualified as published sample answers as I am for the actual results.

Think about it.. It will be a trophy on public display for the next 8 years

I just ask to pass!! hopefully everyone on this forum accomplishes the same. I don't really care if my essay is published. I know this will be very subjective since the whole knowledge each of us have would be impossible to put down in 30 minutes time allocation.

[_cant_deal]

Did anyone else know about the big MBE changes for the Feb 2017 exam???

http://abovethelaw.com/2016/08/big-chan ... uary-2017/


I had no idea. FML.

[BVest]

Did anyone else know about the big MBE changes for the Feb 2017 exam???

http://abovethelaw.com/2016/08/big-chan ... uary-2017/


I had no idea. FML.

It will not have an effect on scores.

[favrefire4]

You have no way of knowing whether it will impact the scores. The mean for the MBE is already the lowest ever recorded (a 134). There's no way to definitively know that the change in the number of experimental questions did or did not have an impact. In theory, yes, scaling should have adjusted for this, but, because the NCBE is perhaps the least transparent organization I've ever seen, we cannot say for certain.

[maxmartin]

You have no way of knowing whether it will impact the scores. The mean for the MBE is already the lowest ever recorded (a 134). There's no way to definitively know that the change in the number of experimental questions did or did not have an impact. In theory, yes, scaling should have adjusted for this, but, because the NCBE is perhaps the least transparent organization I've ever seen, we cannot say for certain.

Exactly. But I think 25 is a trick for NCBE to use to raise the mean MBE score. More experimental questions will make it harder to achieve high score, but it will also make it harder to get low score. Just imagine what if 100 questions are experimental.

[BVest]

This is kind of a dumb argument to have, but you're right, I can't be certain that it will have no effect, but if NCBE is doing what they say in scaling and following basic processes for standardized tests, it will have no effect. But you're right. Since they don't operate in the daylight, they might not be doing what they say. For all I know, they pick a score they think should be the mean and then use a monkey with a paintball gun generator to distribute scores around it. But since I have some faith that they're actually doing what they say, I stick by my statement: It will have no effect on scores.

[_cant_deal]

I'm not sure how it doesn't have an impact on scores? But I'm no statistician.

Also, this: http://abovethelaw.com/2017/04/mbe-scor ... -time-low/

More historic lows.

[DueProcessDoWheelies]

I'm not sure how it doesn't have an impact on scores? But I'm no statistician.

Also, this: http://abovethelaw.com/2017/04/mbe-scor ... -time-low/

More historic lows.

Either the NCBE is right and we really are getting dumber, or the increase to 25 experimentals really did hurt test performance.

[ur_hero]

I'm unclear on how the experimental questions work, but seems it could go both ways:

If experimental questions are chosen in advance, then theoretically they shouldn't have any impact as long as the rest of the test remained balanced in difficulty. Sure, each individual question counts for more but out of 175 Questions your average isn't going to change substantially from this. This may, however, not be the case if the experimental Q's were all so long and/or complex that they were huge time-sucks on the test and pulled overall performance down. I don't recall coming across any of these in the MBE personally this year - just the usual annoying page long mortgage/recording and contracts questions. MBE felt pretty standard to what I practiced. Maybe that's just me though.

On the other hand, if they are chosen after the fact based on "too hard" or "too easy" Q's, it seems the NCBE could still just choose them in a way that maintains a fixed scale as well. So, same result?

Or maybe instead, they made even MORE "easier" questions experimental ones? That would be terrifying.

In the end, average scaled MBE was low historically but not what looks to me to be a major drop compared to last year. But I'm not statistician and can't speak to the significance sooo.....

[Estecontre]

This is kind of a dumb argument to have, but you're right, I can't be certain that it will have no effect, but if NCBE is doing what they say in scaling and following basic processes for standardized tests, it will have no effect. But you're right. Since they don't operate in the daylight, they might not be doing what they say. For all I know, they pick a score they think should be the mean and then use a monkey with a paintball gun generator to distribute scores around it. But since I have some faith that they're actually doing what they say, I stick by my statement: It will have no effect on scores.

I'm going to agree with what you've said. I don't see why everybody is freaking out about this "historically low" mean MBE scores. When I first heard about it I thought the mean was going to be horrible, but I just don't see what a one point difference between last years and this years scores really mean. I'm not a mathematician nor a statistician, but a 1 point difference is not that much. Not only that, most people are freaking out over the low passage rates and are blaming it solely on the MBE forgetting that there is also an MPT and MEE. While not all states give them the same weight you can't blame the low passage rates solely on the MBE (or in large part). The MBE can make or break you, but it's not 100% of your score there are at least two other factors for some states. I also think most people are thinking about this too much and forgot what the definition of mean is. It's not the same thing as a median where 50% of people scored above a certain score and 50% scored below a certain score. It is literally the average meaning some people could've down horribly bad resulting in a score of 60 and thus bringing the average down. There are just too many factors to take into consideration as to why this is, but point is I don't see a 1 point difference being that huge of a deal.

On a side note, I like the way Texas breaks down their grades. While the MPT and Short Answer won't break you, you can't completely neglect it (though I do feel like you can completely neglect one of those sections if you can knock the other out of the park). But a bulk of your points should be made on a combination of the MBE and Essays.

[favrefire4]

If I'm to correctly understand how Texas does their scoring, they scale everything against the MBE anyway, yes? So, in theory, the fact that the mean MBE score is lower should actually benefit takers that score above the average, no?

[Estecontre]

If I'm to correctly understand how Texas does their scoring, they scale everything against the MBE anyway, yes? So, in theory, the fact that the mean MBE score is lower should actually benefit takers that score above the average, no?

Someone with better knowledge can fill in for me, but it was my understanding that they use the same type of method for scaling the MBE as in the equipercentile or whatever it's called and scale it to 200 points just like the MBE. Not that they actually scale everything against the MBE anyways. Again, I'm not completely sure.

[Gully1990]

Honestly it is what it is!! The scores have declined since 2015. At the end of the day we won't know until the list comes out. As a retailer I can't afford to worry. I would lose my mind.