Version 2.6 made a number of improvements for splitter predictions. While it's accuracy for this cycle remains to be seen, it is more accurate at the aggregate level than the old splitter algorithm.

And I'm glad it made your day a whole lot brighter.

As far as splitter adjustments... are they done per school on a case by case basis?
Or is there some general rule you apply to all schools?

I was looking at my situation with a 3.17 and 170, and it said that UCLA and USC were "consider"s as in a 50% chance according to the accuracy page.

Then I looked at law school numbers and saw that no where near 50% of people got admitted with scores in that range last cycle. In fact almost everyone gets waitlisted. What's the deal with that?

It's a general rule for the most part. I've been slowly working on tweaking them for specific schools.

Law School Predictor celebrates first birthday today!


Link to more.

Thank you for a great program. That being said, I hope it gets it wrong for me,

I'm planning out upgrades for Law School Predictor: Version 3.0. If you have any suggestions/comments, please let me know (via this thread is fine).

Hi, I was wondering why no one has collaborated with LSN yet to do regression analysis on the charts there... It seems to me that this would be the only way to get reliable feedback regarding splitters. On LSP it seems all the models are linear, while the real models are of course curved...

LSP works with published (and sometimes unpublished/estimated) admissions index formulas, which are linear.

Right, I knew that. But you must admit that the index formulas, as official as they may be, are not as reliable as a simple curve that could come from regression analysis on the real data, right? For example, for a GPA below 3.3, no LSAT score can really salvage a UCLA application... However, the linear formula puts you above the 95th percentile for matriculated students...

I'm sure there are other examples, but this is just one that I remember from the beginning of my own cycle; at first I thought I would have a shot at UCLA with 3.2 / 170 based on LSP, then I saw the graph.

Just wondering what you think about all this.


(By the way, the reason why I previously said that LSP seems linear to me rather than stating it as a matter of fact is because I'm not sure how you have the splitter modifier built into your formulas... that could possibly make LSP not linear.)

The splitter modifier, in most cases, makes it non-linear, although this would only apply to roughly 10% of the applicant pool (based on LSN data). LSP started off based on index formulas, and I'm wary of drastically changing something that has worked well for the most part. That said, a number of users have commented on how some schools have "walls" or "cutoffs," and I hope to incorporate these suggestions into 3.0.

It's also worth noting that the % at/below field is a very rough estimate and should not be used to gauge one's chances; instead the textual prediction ("Admit, Strong Consider, etc.") is a better bet because I don't currently have the ability to be that precise with my predictions.

YC, just wanted to thank you for putting this program together. I can tell you that it certainly helped me in my application strategy, and I'm sure that there's numerous applicants and law students who feel the same.

Thanks!

Also: New Law School Predictor t-shirts now available!

Version 3.0 releasing on June 22, 2010. For more info, check out the video trailer: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gw4dJoACarw

Fuck yeah -- LSP v3.0, brought to you by Michael Bay!

State residency feature...good call. Does that apply to only the state schools or private as well? Thus far in my cycle its the in-state schools (all private) that are giving me love.

Thanks!

For the time being, state residency is only going to be for public or semi-public law schools.

V. 3.0 COMING JUNE 22, 2010!!!-----------------------------or maybe not

As of today, it looks like quite likely so.

There will quite likely be:
- updated data (LSATs and GPAs and rankings)
- state residency feature for the top 100 law schools
- accounting for LSAT and/or GPA "walls" for some schools (this takes time to research and implement)
- minor adjustments to prediction algorithms

Possibly in the near future:
- Canadian law schools
- other adjustments

Can't wait. Thanks for this amazing tool!

Yeah, I also wanted to say sweet job with this site. It's seriously awesome and a great tool. I'm always promoting it to pre-law friends

Version 3.0 should release sometime tonight. State residency may not be up-and-running pending my ability/time to fix some issues with it.

I'm quite looking forward to seeing it. Fun toy to have tonite to bide the time for my LSAT score to finally show up.

Same. Hopefully it can kill some time until I get my score.

I'll be sad to see the walls implemented and some "admits"s turn into denys, but at least it'll be more accurate.

What is a LSAT and/or GPA "wall"?