C/O 2015 Medians and Class Sizes Forum

[KevinP]

Thread merged to: http://top-law-schools.com/forums/viewt ... 1&t=190807

Spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... nUnc#gid=0

Any suggestions are always welcome. Please correct me if any of my information is incorrect.

Format:
School Name (U.S. News Rank): LSAT Median (change), GPA Median (change), Class Size (change)
Yale (#1) 173 (0), 3.9 (0), 203 (-2, -0.97%)
Harvard (#3): ? (?), ? (?), 557 (-2, -0.36%) *25th/75th GPA: 3.77 (-.01) / 3.95(-.02). 25th/75th LSAT: 170 (-1) / 175 (-1)
Columbia (#4): 172 (0), 3.71 (-.01), 368 (-38 , -9.36%)
Chicago (LinkRemoved) (#5): 171 (0), 3.9 (+.03), 184 (-7, -3.66%)
NYU (#6): ? (?), ? (?), 452 (+2, +0.44%) *25th/75th GPA: 3.5 (-.07) / 3.8 (-.05). 25th/75th LSAT: 169 (-1) / 173 (-1)
Berkeley (#7): 167 (0), 3.81 (+.02), 265 (+11, +4.15%)
Penn (#7): ? (?), ? (?), 243 (-23, -8.65%) *25th/75th GPA: 3.56 (-.02) / 3.95 (+.02). 25th/75th LSAT: 164 (-2) / 171 (0)
Virginia (#7): 170 (0), 3.87 (+.01), 358 (+1, +0.28%)
Michigan (#10): 169 (0), 3.73 (-.03), 345 (-14, -3.9%)
Duke (#11): ? (?), ? (?), 208 (-3, -1.42%) *No LSAT/GPA breakdowns yet.
GULC (#13): 169 (-1), 3.73 (+.02), 578 (-1, -0.17%)
Cornell (#14): 167 (-1), 3.68 (+.05), 194 (-10, -4.9%)
-----------------
UCLA (#15): 168 (0), 3.78 (0), 309 (-11, -3.44%)
Vandy (#16): 169 (0), 3.7 (-.03), 173 (-20 , -10.4%)
USC (#18): 167 (0), 3.73 (+.04), 188 (-11 , -5.53%)
Minnesota: 167 (0), 3.8 (0), 205 (-46, -16.67%)
Notre Dame (#22): 166 (0), 3.66 (+.02), 178 (-5, -2.73%)
WUSTL (LinkRemoved) (#23): 166 (-2), 3.68 (+.02)
W&L (#24): 164 (0), 3.62 (-.03), 188 (+67, +55.37%)
Boston University (#26): 166 (-1), 3.75 (+.03), 211 (-31, -12.8%)
Arizona State University (#26): 163 (+1) 3.65 (+.03), 152 (-19, -11.11%)
Indiana--Bloomington (#26): 164 (-2), 3.8 (+.05), 202 (-38, -15.83%)
Alabama (#29): 165 (0), 3.83 (0) *Not certain of these numbers.
Boston College (#29): 164 (-1), 3.6 (-.06), 246 (-22, -8.2%)
UC Davis (#29): 163 (-1), 3.6 (-.03), 191 (-1, -0.52%)
Iowa (#29): 162 (+1), 3.66 (+.02), 155 (-25, -13.89%)
-----------------
University of Georgia (#34): 164 (-1), 3.67 (+.08), 189 (-36, -16%)
William & Mary (#35): 164 (-1), 3.74 (+.01), 196 (-21, -9.68%)
UNC Chapel Hill (#38): 162 (-1), 3.51 (0)
George Mason (#39): 163 (-1), 3.7 (-.02), 147 (-39, -20.98%)
University of Arizona (#43): 161 (0), 3.52 (-.02), 121 (-16, -11.68%)
Colorado (#44): 164 (0), 3.67 (+.03), 153 (-11, -6.71%)
UC Hastings (#44): 162 (0), 3.59 (-.01), 317 (-97, -23.4%)
University of Florida (#48): 162 (0), 3.59 (-.05), 287 (-8, -2.71%)
American U (#49): 159 (-3), 3.44 (0), 493 (+18, +3.7%)
Pepperdine (#49): 162 (-1), 3.63 (0), 213 (+11, +5.45%)
Loyola Law School-LA (#51): 161 (+1), 3.54 (+.04)
Florida State (#51): 160 (-2), 3.53 (+.06), 187 (-13, -6.5%)
Cordozo (#56): 162 (0), 3.53 (-.07,), 379 (0)
Lewis and Clark (#58): 160 (-1), 3.47 (-0.02), (-12, -5.31%)
Temple (#58): 161 (+1), 3.42 (+.03), 253 (-17, -6.3%)
U of Connecticut (#62): 159 (0), 3.45 (0), 151 (-30, -16.58%)
U of Kentucky (#62): 158 (-1), 3.51 (-.06), 138 (+8, +6.15%)
Brooklyn (#65): 161 (-2), 3.33 (-.03), 365 (-25, -5.19%)
University of San Diego (#65): 160 (0), 3.5 (+.07), 247 (-53, -17.67%)
Seton Hall (#69): 158 (-1), 3.5 (0), 206 (-60, -22.56%)
Penn State (#76): 159 (0), 3.56 (+.01), 165 (-20, -10.81%)
Northeastern (#76): 161 (-1), 3.53 (+.05), 169 (-49, -22.4%)
University of Nevada (#79): 159 (0), 3.46 (+.07), 139 (-1, -0.71%)
St. John's (#79): 158 (-2), 3.44 (-.05), 270 (-23, -7.85%)
Michigan State (#82): 157 (0), 3.54 (0), 298 (-9, -2.93%)
Oregon (#82): 158 (-1), 3.33 (-.06), 147 (-36, -19.57%)
Hofstra (#89): 157 (-2), 3.27 (-.05), 325 (-39, -10.71%)
University of Louisville (#89): 156 (0), 3.44 (+.02), 140 (+8, +6.06%)
Nebraska (#89): 158 (+1), 3.64 (+.13), 136 (+8, +6.25%)
Marquette (#96): 155 (0), 3.4 (+.05), 226 (+13, +6.10%)
Santa Clara (#96): 158 (-2), 3.23 (-.01), 243 (-44, -15.33%)
Syracuse (#96): 153 (-2), 3.28 (-.08), 245 (-10, -3.92%)
Texas Tech (#101): 156 (+1), 3.48 (-.01), 232 (-4, -1.69%)
Drake (#106): 155 (-1), 3.30 (-.1), 126 (-16, -11.27%)
Albany (#113): 152 (-1), 3.31 (0), 202 (-33, -12.94%)
Gonzaga (#113): 155 (0), 3.27 (-.06), "The 2012 incoming 1L class is smaller than the 2011 incoming class."
Quinnipiac (#113): 156 (0), 3.4 (+.07), 127 (+4, +3.25%)
Stetson (#119):*Will calculate FT+PT later.
Vermont (#119): 153 (-1), 3.22 (-.04), 172 (+21, +13.91%)
Willamette (#129): 153 (-2), 3.18 (+.03), 136 (-5, -3.54%)
-----------------
Barry (#Unranked): 147 (-2), 2.92 (-.03), 296 (+29, +10.86%)
Charleston (#Unranked): 152 (0), 3.21 (+.08), (-77, -34.38%)
Northern Kentucky (#Unranked): 152 (-2), 3.21 (-.14), 181 (+3, +1.69%)
Nova Southeastern (#Unranked): 150 (0), 3.14 (-.08), 380 (+26, +7.34%)
Oklahoma City (#Unranked): *Enrollment down 24, no medians yet

[top30man]

Not sure if you saw this tread but a lot of interesting information re: class sizes. However no t14 info. http://top-law-schools.com/forums/viewt ... lass+sizes

[justonemoregame]

Here's an editable list of 2011 entering class sizes, which includes full and part-time:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... PYWc#gid=0



and some other data related to previous declines in full-time enrollment and medians:

http://lawprofessors.typepad.com/files/ ... ofiles.pdf

[KevinP]

^ Sweet, thanks. I have the 2011 data entered into a database, so that when the 2012 data comes out, I can run some statistical analyses on it. My focus will be mainly on the T14 though, and I'm more interested in seeing the class medians/sizes together instead of separately.

[2014]

Even if it isn't your priority you might consider going to 25 or 30 just because a lot of those schools are the most blatant of median whores and also seem to be the most likely to either take a median hit or benefit the most from maintaining. Either way, looking forward to seeing the t14.

[Yukos]

Tag, very excited for this.

[rad lulz]

Even if it isn't your priority you might consider going to 25 or 30 just because a lot of those schools are the most blatant of median whores and also seem to be the most likely to either take a median hit or benefit the most from maintaining. Either way, looking forward to seeing the t14.

This. Looking at you, Midwest spliTTTer-friendly schools.

[thelawyler]

Any bets on which schools medians will drop?

[LargeNinCharge]

Tag.

Can't wait.

[AntipodeanPhil]

Any bets on which schools medians will drop?

GULC's LSAT median has to drop. There is no way a school at the bottom end of the t14, with such a small amount of merit aid, has been able to find 250-300 students with 170+ scores. I'm betting they've had to drop class size and increase aid to scrape up a 169 median.

[LSATSCORES2012]

Any bets on which schools medians will drop?

I'd be very surprised if Harvard's didn't.

LSN is obviously a very small, self selected, sample size, but here's a comparison of last year's medians with this year's.

school New LSAT New GPA Old LSAT Old GPA
yale 177 3.935 176 3.93
stanford 172 3.9 170 3.845
harvard 173 3.88 173 3.91
columbia 173 3.69 173 3.74
chicago 173 3.73 171 3.87
nyu 173 3.63 172 3.7
berkeley 167 3.865 168 3.77
penn 170.5 3.58 170 3.835
uva 170 3.83 170 3.56
michigan 170 3.63 169 3.67
duke 169 3.68 170 3.7
northwestern 171 3.6 171 3.38
gulc 169 3.4 170.5 3.7
cornell 167.5 3.64 168 3.6

Interesting notes:

Most notably, Georgetown, Penn, and Chicago seem to have let their GPA medians slip by a lot while Northwestern's seems to have increased substantially.

Georgetown also seems to have dropped it's LSAT median.

Stanford seems to have substantially improved its LSAT median, likely due to being chosen over Harvard because of it's increase in ranking.

In general, on LSN most schools don't seem to have suffered a major LSAT hit, instead opting to take hits to their GPA medians.

It looks like this past cycle may have been especially good for splitters, or those with relatively low GPA's.

So, in response to your question, if I were to bet, I would say:

Y has been relatively unaffected, while Stanford seems to have improved its standing and Harvard will suffer a hit.

CCN, and P will maintain their LSAT medians while letting their GPA medians slip.

Boalt, Michigan, Cornell will remain relatively unaffected.

GULC will let both its LSAT and GPA medians slip.

Another thing to note is the fact that the LSN numbers are generally above the actual numbers. I think LSN is generally comprised of more qualified users than the general population, so those admits with lesser numbers may not be as represented as those with higher numbers, and so drops may not be fully reflected.

[PaulKriske]

Any bets on which schools medians will drop?

I'd be very surprised if Harvard's didn't.

LSN is obviously a very small, self selected, sample size, but here's a comparison of last year's medians with this year's.

school New LSAT New GPA Old LSAT Old GPA
yale 177 3.935 176 3.93
stanford 172 3.9 170 3.845
harvard 173 3.88 173 3.91
columbia 173 3.69 173 3.74
chicago 173 3.73 171 3.87
nyu 173 3.63 172 3.7
berkeley 167 3.865 168 3.77
penn 170.5 3.58 170 3.835
uva 170 3.83 170 3.56
michigan 170 3.63 169 3.67
duke 169 3.68 170 3.7
northwestern 171 3.6 171 3.38
gulc 169 3.4 170.5 3.7
cornell 167.5 3.64 168 3.6

Interesting notes:

Most notably, Georgetown, Penn, and Chicago seem to have let their GPA medians slip by a lot while Northwestern's seems to have increased substantially.

Georgetown also seems to have dropped it's LSAT median.

Stanford seems to have substantially improved its LSAT median, likely due to being chosen over Harvard because of it's increase in ranking.

In general, on LSN most schools don't seem to have suffered a major LSAT hit, instead opting to take hits to their GPA medians.

It looks like this past cycle may have been especially good for splitters, or those with relatively low GPA's.

So, in response to your question, if I were to bet, I would say:

Y has been relatively unaffected, while Stanford seems to have improved its standing and Harvard will suffer a hit.

CCN, and P will maintain their LSAT medians while letting their GPA medians slip.

Boalt, Michigan, Cornell will remain relatively unaffected.

GULC will let both its LSAT and GPA medians slip.

Another thing to note is the fact that the LSN numbers are generally above the actual numbers. I think LSN is generally comprised of more qualified users than the general population, so those admits with lesser numbers may not be as represented as those with higher numbers, and so drops may not be fully reflected.

egregious anti-duke trolling.

[top30man]

Any bets on which schools medians will drop?

I don't think Gulc can maintain that 170 median.

[law2015]

Any bets on which schools medians will drop?

I don't think Gulc can maintain that 170 median.

Not with their class size. It will be interesting to see which schools will cut class sizes and which will drop medians this year and especially next after what seems to be an even further drop in applicants.

[Dr. Filth]

Thanks for doing this OP.

[KevinP]

Law schools have been increasing class sizes and charging far too much for tuition for many years. One would think that the abrupt decline in applicants might make them reconsider the idea that applicants are expendable. However, many deans are treating the decline as an "anomaly" or "cyclical" (actual words used in news media by law school deans). This decline is amidst an economic downturn, which is even more revealing. I honestly believe we'll see further declines, and we won't reach the applicant numbers during the 2010 increase for a very, very long time, if ever. I would hardly call this decline an "anomaly."

Even if it isn't your priority you might consider going to 25 or 30 just because a lot of those schools are the most blatant of median whores and also seem to be the most likely to either take a median hit or benefit the most from maintaining. Either way, looking forward to seeing the t14.

Good point. I've extended the list to T25.

@LSATScores2012
LSN supports the theory that schools prefer LSAT before GPA.
This was also the case (I might be mixing up GPA/LSAT... been a while since I read the study), when applicants declined substantially in the '93-'96 years.
http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/se ... o=ED469249

[thelawyler]

Any bets on which schools medians will drop?

I don't think Gulc can maintain that 170 median.

Not with their class size. It will be interesting to see which schools will cut class sizes and which will drop medians this year and especially next after what seems to be an even further drop in applicants.

All I gotta say is that I hope law schools decrease their class sizes. This will hopefully help in recruitment as there will be 4-5 less top 10% at lower schools, and less above median students at T14s, and thus hopefully it'll make options a little more plentiful. Maybe I'm just being naive, though.

[sunynp]

Just note that as schools drop class sizes significantly, they may increase tuition to make up for the loss of revenue. See Hastings.

[tonton]

tag

[AllDangle]

.

[top30man]

It'll be interesting to see if t14s reduce class size. It would mean mass structural changes. For example, GULC has a massive faculty and staff to serve 1800 law students. That would mean big staff cuts if they reduce class size, which would also be bad for academic reputation for USNWR.

[pwyoung]

Regarding class sizes: if there is such a precipitous fall of applicants (and thus potential medians) across the board, couldn't admissions deans maintain their class sizes, knowing that the impact on other schools will be relative? Yeah, a school might take a step back in where their medians might be, but other schools likely are having to take a similar step, meaning the rankings aren't impacted because everybody is basically taking a step back at the same time.

I suppose there could be a fear that another school is willing to take the fiscal hit of a smaller class in order to save their median, but the cash involved in keeping a big 'ol class size seems to be pretty tempting, even if you are worried about USNWR's rankings.

[LSATSCORES2012]

Any bets on which schools medians will drop?

I'd be very surprised if Harvard's didn't.

LSN is obviously a very small, self selected, sample size, but here's a comparison of last year's medians with this year's.

school New LSAT New GPA Old LSAT Old GPA
yale 177 3.935 176 3.93
stanford 172 3.9 170 3.845
harvard 173 3.88 173 3.91
columbia 173 3.69 173 3.74
chicago 173 3.73 171 3.87
nyu 173 3.63 172 3.7
berkeley 167 3.865 168 3.77
penn 170.5 3.58 170 3.835
uva 170 3.83 170 3.56
michigan 170 3.63 169 3.67
duke 169 3.68 170 3.7
northwestern 171 3.6 171 3.38
gulc 169 3.4 170.5 3.7
cornell 167.5 3.64 168 3.6

Interesting notes:

Most notably, Georgetown, Penn, and Chicago seem to have let their GPA medians slip by a lot while Northwestern's seems to have increased substantially.

Georgetown also seems to have dropped it's LSAT median.

Stanford seems to have substantially improved its LSAT median, likely due to being chosen over Harvard because of it's increase in ranking.

In general, on LSN most schools don't seem to have suffered a major LSAT hit, instead opting to take hits to their GPA medians.

It looks like this past cycle may have been especially good for splitters, or those with relatively low GPA's.

So, in response to your question, if I were to bet, I would say:

Y has been relatively unaffected, while Stanford seems to have improved its standing and Harvard will suffer a hit.

CCN, and P will maintain their LSAT medians while letting their GPA medians slip.

Boalt, Michigan, Cornell will remain relatively unaffected.

GULC will let both its LSAT and GPA medians slip.

Another thing to note is the fact that the LSN numbers are generally above the actual numbers. I think LSN is generally comprised of more qualified users than the general population, so those admits with lesser numbers may not be as represented as those with higher numbers, and so drops may not be fully reflected.

Do you have UVA's GPA medians swapped? If not, looks like the median GPA based on LSN took a huge jump.

No, I just copied and pasted the output directly from the program which downloads the data.

Sooooo.... who is at Duke's orientation today? When can we expect to hear their new numbers?

[2014]

UVA manages the hell out of their medians via splitters and giving huge scholarships to a select few high numbered balanced candidates. You can probably bank on them maintaining both medians fine.

[VUSisterRayVU]

I feel like we're not gonna see a full story just based on medians. Rather, splitters are going to be admitted more readily at schools that were less splitter friendly. This was hinted at through some of the people on LSN but it's really hard to get a worthwhile sample since there's 1. Only so many splitters and 2. Only so many on LSN