3.84, 166 MA - What are my chances at T6? Forum

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133245

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3.84, 166 MA - What are my chances at T6?

Post by 133245 » Fri Feb 15, 2019 11:42 am

Trying to get a sense of how unlikely it is I get into the T6 with these stats, especially HYS (lol). I checked LSN but there aren't a ton of data points so any anecdotal evidence/advice is appreciated.

nothingnothing2727

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Re: 3.84, 166 MA - What are my chances at T6?

Post by nothingnothing2727 » Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:17 pm

My GPA is under less than .1 from yours (maybe up, maybe down? Keeping anon). Same LSAT and I'm MA too. We are in a VERY similar spot this cycle.

I have done COUNTLESS research trying to find data points, but there are not too many.

One great thing to note about your GPA is that you meet the "cut off," as I like to call it, for the T14. A GPA of 3.6/3.75 (URM non AA) and under are pretty much rejected at T7 with an LSAT under 168. The wiggle room for URMs comes in the form of LSAT points, NOT GPA. I find this interesting, yet predictable after I thought about it. Here is my explanation for this: the top schools typically will accept 178/179/180 non-URM applicants with GPAs of 3.0 and above, which are GPAs far from their medians. Their strategy is to grab up all the high LSAT takers and take a hit on the GPA median for it. Now they get to URMs, which they must take. URMs, on average, have lower LSAT scores. So now the balancing act begins. The schools will take a hit on their LSAT median, but NOT GPA medians for URM non-AA applicants. That said, your great GPA will help you out VERY much at the T14 when they begin to reach down in LSAT points to get your high GPA.

Of course, this is only true for those URMs that have under a 170. At or above this point will allow one to have lower GPA and still get in.

Another topic is the data I used on LSData two weeks ago re: harvard acceptance odds, I'll just paste my notes here. Note, this is only about NUMBERS, other app stuff is not included. I do know it's self reported, but here is my rendition about where I (and similarly, you) would hypothetically stand for Harvard:

"Harvard
URMs ONLY
1) There are 67 applicants that have a higher LSAT than me, but 20 of those have too low/unacceptable GPA the school wants (under a 3.7 at <169 and 170+ <3.2)= I am now 48th in line to admit.
2) Of those in front of me, statistically, 17 MAs will go to Yale over Harvard (data from LSN) = I am now 31th in line.
3) Stanford accepts 20 MAs (data from LSN). So, of those accepted in front of me in line, lets say only a quarter will take the Sanford offer over the Harvard acceptance (5 go to Stanford)= I'm now 26th in line.
4) 10 people in front of me will be going to schools offering full rides (free school)> Harvard (180+ debt) = I'm now 16th in line.
5) Add 10 for error = I'm 26th in line at Harvard.

On average, Harvard accepts ~52 Hispanics a year."

My calculations say admit, but who knows.

I hope this is telling. Maybe there is something I forgot here, but I got bored and wanted to crush numbers to see where I stood (and pretty much this applies to you too).

En03l

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Re: 3.84, 166 MA - What are my chances at T6?

Post by En03l » Fri Jan 24, 2020 10:17 am

Where did you find those specific data points about how many of each ethnicity is admitted to a given school each cycle? I know some of the ABA reports show how many total of each is enrolled, but how did you find out the school's acceptance rate of URM? Did you deduce that from the ABA report?

nothingnothing2727

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Re: 3.84, 166 MA - What are my chances at T6?

Post by nothingnothing2727 » Sat Jan 25, 2020 2:42 am

I went on LSN and looked at how many Hispanics attend the school and divided that number by 3.

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